Lies...Damn Lies...and Police Leaders
Over 100 years ago, American Author Mark Twain popularized the phrase, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” and it may be more true today than ever. Americans are accustomed to the lies of politicians and while I’m not surprised with the typical election year shenanigans, I am perplexed at just how brazen those lies have become.
Just this week, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that under the leadership of President Biden, violent crime is at a 50 year low.
If she would have said a year, or my favorite line, “since 2020,” I would have likely missed this lie but she said it was the lowest in 50 years. Of course, no one with a few brain cells believes that but it is shocking that the lies have become so outrageous.
It wasn’t enough to spend a few seconds at a podium touting the lie, The White House put it in writing, issuing the below press release.
Americans are safer from violent crime today than a year ago. Today, an independent organization of police chiefs from the nation’s largest cities released data showing that, compared to a year earlier, violent crime declined across every category in the first quarter of 2024 and murders are down 17%. These decreases build on substantial decreases in previous years. After the prior Administration oversaw the largest one-year increase in murders ever recorded, violent crime is at a near fifty-year low. This crime reduction is not an accident. It’s the result of extraordinary efforts from law enforcement and community leaders. It’s also the result of historic steps by my Administration to stop the flow of illegal guns and make the largest-ever federal investment in fighting and preventing crime because of my American Rescue Plan.
Cowardly Leadership
I stopped being bothered by politicians lying years ago and laugh hysterically when the word “leader” and any politician comes up in conversation because integrity is the foundation of all leadership but what I don’t expect is our own police leaders to play the same game.
In February 2024, President Biden met with police chiefs from several cities including Chicago, Miami, Buffalo, New York, and Milwaukee. He touted the 50 year record lows then and no one said a thing.
The law enforcement leaders that day and all others know this is a lie and this is how they know.
Playing With The Data
In 2019, 89% of municipal police departments, consisting of 97% of the population, submitted crime data to the FBI but by 2021, the population represented in the crime data had dropped to 65% when just 63% of the agencies reported their crime. It hasn’t improved much since and in 2023, cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York City did not submit their crime data.
Do you think that may affect the national crime stats just a little….
It should be no surprise that the worse offenders are not exactly coming from safe states. New Jersey reported crime from just 177 of their 578 agencies and Pennsylvania only reported crime from 40 of the 1504 agencies while just half of California reported crime.
But don’t worry. The FBI has a 100% compliance from the mean streets of Connecticut and Delaware.
Apples To Oranges
We may never know the sleight of hand coming from the agencies that did report the data. Reports have surfaced for years of agencies purposely downgrading violent crimes to misdemeanors and the pressure to do so has only increased in recent years.
The reality is exactly what you know. Crime is not down. While our leaders tout the great job they are doing in reducing crime, the Major City Chiefs Association showed a significant increase in crime while the National Crime Victimization Survey showed a 30% rise in robbery (25% of all violent crime) while the FBI claimed it was reduced by 18%.
Excuses
It may not be a coincidence that the wheel broke in 2021. Coming off the most violent year America has ever seen, the FBI changed how they accepted crime data (NIBRS) and Americans went from knowing the crime levels to not having a clue. At the same time, many law enforcement leaders and politicians at the highest level used this broken system to brag how crime is down.
Weakness In Our Ranks
Gone are the days when Chief Ron Palmer, cautioned me when I commanded the Media Relations Unit.
“Travis, if you take credit for lowering crime, you better be willing to take credit for it going up.”
It’s hard to imagine that the one metric that law enforcement is responsible for, and one frankly we should he held accountable for, is being manipulated by many local agencies and the highest law enforcement agency in the country. If someone on Wall Street was doing that, we would arrest them but our profession is using it to pat themselves on the back and politicians are using it to get elected.
Integrity Matters
There are plenty of leaders that understand that integrity is everything but it’s time for the ones playing this game to go. Lying about crime only bolsters the silly reforms that have created the very environment where violence is up, recruiting is down and communities are less safe.
Dr. Travis Yates retired as a commander with a large municipal police department after 30 years of service. He is the author of “The Courageous Police Leader: A Survival Guide for Combating Cowards, Chaos & Lies.” His risk management and leadership seminars have been taught to thousands of professionals across the world. He is a graduate of the FBI National Academy with a Doctorate Degree in Strategic Leadership and the CEO of the Courageous Police Leadership Alliance.
Without concrete data, the claim that crime is down can't be supported. Worse, it's not down, it is way up.